Category Archives: Science

How to slow the spread of coronavirus

The Washington Post: Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to “flatten the curve”. (Free access.)

“[It] is instructive to simulate the spread of a fake disease through a population. We will call our fake disease simulitis. […]

Simulitis is not covid-19, and these simulations vastly oversimplify the complexity of real life. Yet just as simulitis spread through the networks of bouncing balls on your screen, covid-19 is spreading through our human networks – through our countries, our towns our workplaces, our families. And, like a ball bouncing across the screen, a single person’s behavior can cause ripple effects that touch faraway people.

In one crucial respect, though, these simulations are nothing like reality: Unlike simulitis, covid-19 can kill. Though the fatality rate is not precisely known, it is clear that the elderly members of our community are most at risk of dying from covid-19.”

“Noch haben wir – u.a. durch ein gut aufgestelltes Gesundheitssystem – einen Vorsprung, den man aber nicht verspielen darf.”

NRD Info: Podcast: Das Coronavirus-Update mit Christian Drosten.

Seit 26.02.2020 erscheint täglich eine Folge von ca. 30min Dauer. Alternative für Leute, die lieber lesen: Coronavirus-Update – Die Podcast-Folgen als Skript.

“Sars-CoV-2, das neue Coronavirus, hat sich zuerst in China ausgebreitet und ist nun Tag für Tag in den Schlagzeilen. Doch wie können wir so viele Menschen wie möglich so fundiert wie möglich informieren – ohne dabei unnötige Panik zu verbreiten? NDR Info Wissenschaftsredakteurin Korinna Hennig spricht jeden Tag mit einem der führenden Virus-Forscher Deutschlands: Christian Drosten, dem Leiter der Virologie in der Berliner Charité.

Welche Spur verfolgt die Forschung aktuell? Welche neuen Erkenntnisse gibt es zu Ansteckung und Krankheitsverlauf? Ist die Aufregung um das neue Virus überhaupt angemessen? Und: Wie ergeht es den Forschern persönlich in diesen Tagen?”

“Better safe than sorry.“

The New York Times Opinion: Coronavirus School Closings: Don’t Wait Until It’s Too Late. “History teaches us that keeping children at home early in an outbreak can save lives.” By Howard Markel. “Dr. Markel studies the history of pandemics. … [He] is the director of the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan and a professor of pediatrics.”

“Schools are community gathering places where large numbers of people are in proximity to one another and respiratory infections can easily spread among young people and adults alike. Shutting them down can be a key part of slowing the spread of easily transmissible viruses so that hospitals are not overrun with sick people, and it can help to buy time to allow for the development of antiviral medications, medical treatments or a vaccine.

But policymakers working to stop the spread of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 should remember a key part of this historically informed equation: We can’t wait until it’s too late.

Communities in the United States must shut down schools before, not after, the outbreak becomes widespread here. “Widespread“ is admittedly an imprecise term, but I use it to describe a situation in which there are multiple cases throughout a town or state and more cases with each passing day.”

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