Category Archives: Community

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

Tomas Pueyo: Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance. “What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time”. (March 19, 2020)

Here’s the Epidemic Calculator that is being used in the article.

Older article by the same author: Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now. “Politicians, Community Leaders and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?” (March 10, 2020)

Deutsche Übersetzung: Coronavirus: Warum du jetzt handeln musst!.

Here in Germany all schools and daycare facilities have been closed for one week already and will remain so for at least the next four weeks.

Our state and our county have issued a general decree, imposing the following rules starting last night at midnight: All public places are closed, including roads. People are not allowed to leave their houses except to go to work, or to the doctor, or to shop for essential groceries. Gatherings of more than five people are prohibited. However, you are still allowed to go for walks by yourself or with people living in your own household if you keep at least two metres (six feet) of distance to other people. The decree is in effect for at least two weeks. (Our county shares a border with the Grand-Est region of France to the South, which has been declared an international risk area.)

How to slow the spread of coronavirus

The Washington Post: Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to “flatten the curve”. (Free access.)

“[It] is instructive to simulate the spread of a fake disease through a population. We will call our fake disease simulitis. […]

Simulitis is not covid-19, and these simulations vastly oversimplify the complexity of real life. Yet just as simulitis spread through the networks of bouncing balls on your screen, covid-19 is spreading through our human networks – through our countries, our towns our workplaces, our families. And, like a ball bouncing across the screen, a single person’s behavior can cause ripple effects that touch faraway people.

In one crucial respect, though, these simulations are nothing like reality: Unlike simulitis, covid-19 can kill. Though the fatality rate is not precisely known, it is clear that the elderly members of our community are most at risk of dying from covid-19.”

“Noch haben wir – u.a. durch ein gut aufgestelltes Gesundheitssystem – einen Vorsprung, den man aber nicht verspielen darf.”

NRD Info: Podcast: Das Coronavirus-Update mit Christian Drosten.

Seit 26.02.2020 erscheint täglich eine Folge von ca. 30min Dauer. Alternative für Leute, die lieber lesen: Coronavirus-Update – Die Podcast-Folgen als Skript.

“Sars-CoV-2, das neue Coronavirus, hat sich zuerst in China ausgebreitet und ist nun Tag für Tag in den Schlagzeilen. Doch wie können wir so viele Menschen wie möglich so fundiert wie möglich informieren – ohne dabei unnötige Panik zu verbreiten? NDR Info Wissenschaftsredakteurin Korinna Hennig spricht jeden Tag mit einem der führenden Virus-Forscher Deutschlands: Christian Drosten, dem Leiter der Virologie in der Berliner Charité.

Welche Spur verfolgt die Forschung aktuell? Welche neuen Erkenntnisse gibt es zu Ansteckung und Krankheitsverlauf? Ist die Aufregung um das neue Virus überhaupt angemessen? Und: Wie ergeht es den Forschern persönlich in diesen Tagen?”

“Wirksamstes Mittel gegen Coronavirus ist Zeit”

Deutsche Welle: Erste Corona-Todesfälle in Deutschland. “In Deutschland gibt es die ersten beiden Todesfälle wegen des Coronavirus. Es handele sich um eine Person in Heinsberg und eine in Essen, teilte das nordrhein-westfälische Gesundheitsministerium mit.”

“Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel forderte einen energischen Kampf gegen die Ausbreitung des Coronavirus und wies auf eine drohende Infektionswelle in den nächsten Monaten hin. “Das wirksamste Mittel gegen das Virus ist, seine Ausbreitung zu verlangsamen”, sagte Merkel, die sich bisher kaum zu der Epidemie geäußert hatte. Gleichzeitig warnte sie vor falschen Hoffnungen. Das Virus werde sich weiter auch in Deutschland verbreiten. Aber es gehe darum, das Tempo so weit wie möglich zu drosseln. “Wir erarbeiten uns also wertvolle Zeit”, sagte die Kanzlerin”.

Dazu: Begrüßungen in Zeiten des Coronavirus.

“Better safe than sorry.”

The New York Times Opinion: Coronavirus School Closings: Don’t Wait Until It’s Too Late. “History teaches us that keeping children at home early in an outbreak can save lives.” By Howard Markel. “Dr. Markel studies the history of pandemics. … [He] is the director of the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan and a professor of pediatrics.”

“Schools are community gathering places where large numbers of people are in proximity to one another and respiratory infections can easily spread among young people and adults alike. Shutting them down can be a key part of slowing the spread of easily transmissible viruses so that hospitals are not overrun with sick people, and it can help to buy time to allow for the development of antiviral medications, medical treatments or a vaccine.

But policymakers working to stop the spread of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 should remember a key part of this historically informed equation: We can’t wait until it’s too late.

Communities in the United States must shut down schools before, not after, the outbreak becomes widespread here. “Widespread” is admittedly an imprecise term, but I use it to describe a situation in which there are multiple cases throughout a town or state and more cases with each passing day.”

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